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regular conditional probability
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(Definition)
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Suppose $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$ is a probability space and $B\in\mathcal{F}$ be an event with $P(B)>0$ . It is easy to see that $P_B:\mathcal{F}\to [0,1]$ defined by $$P_B(A):=P(A |B),$$ the conditional probability of event $A$ given $B$ , is a probability measure defined on $\mathcal{F}$ , since:
- $P_B$ is clearly non-negative;
- $P_B(\Omega)=\displaystyle{\frac{P(\Omega\cap B)}{P(B)}=\frac{P(B)}{P(B)}=1}$ ;
- $P_B$ is countably additive: for if $\lbrace A_1,A_2,\ldots\rbrace$ is a countable collection of pairwise disjoint events in $\mathcal{F}$ , then $$P_B(\bigcup_{i=1}^{\infty} A_i)=\frac{P\big(B\cap (\bigcup A_i)\big)}{P(B)} =\frac{P\big(\bigcup (B\cap A_i)\big)}{P(B)} = \frac{\sum P(B\cap A_i)}{P(B)} = \sum_{i=1}^{\infty}P_B(A_i),$$ as $\lbrace B\cap A_1,B\cap A_2,\ldots\rbrace$ is a collection of pairwise disjoint events also.
Can we extend the definition above to $P_{\mathcal{G}}$ , where $\mathcal{G}$ is a sub sigma algebra of $\mathcal{F}$ instead of an event? First, we need to be careful what we mean by $P_{\mathcal{G}}$ , since, given any event $A\in\mathcal{F}$ , $P(A|\mathcal{G})$ is not a real number. And strictly speaking, it is not even a random variable, but an equivalence class of random variables (each pair differing by a null event in $\mathcal{G}$ ).
With this in mind, we start with a probability measure $P$ defined on $\mathcal{F}$ and a sub sigma algebra $\mathcal{G}$ of $\mathcal{F}$ . A function $P_{\mathcal{G}}:\mathcal{G}\times\Omega\to [0,1]$ is a called a regular conditional probability if it has the following properties:
- for each event $A\in\mathcal{D}$ , $P_{\mathcal{G}}(A,\cdot):\Omega\to [0,1]$ is a conditional probability (as a random variable) of $A$ given $\mathcal{G}$ ; that is,
- $P_{\mathcal{G}}(A,\cdot)$ is $\mathcal{G}$ -measurable and
- for every $B\in\mathcal{G}$ , we have $\displaystyle \int_B P_{\mathcal{G}}(A,\cdot) dP =P(A\cap B).$
- for every outcome $\omega\in \Omega$ , $P_{\mathcal{G}}(\cdot,\omega): \mathcal{G}\to [0,1]$ is a probability measure.
There are probability spaces where no regular conditional probabilities can be defined. However, when a regular conditional probability function does exist on a space $\Omega$ , then by condition 2 of the definition, we can define a ``conditional'' probability measure on $\Omega$ for each outcome in the sense of the first two paragraphs.
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"regular conditional probability" is owned by CWoo.
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Cross-references: outcome, properties, function, null, equivalence class, random variable, even, strictly, real number, mean, sigma algebra, pairwise disjoint, collection, countable, countably additive, probability measure, conditional probability, easy to see, event, probability space
This is version 4 of regular conditional probability, born on 2006-11-19, modified 2008-09-01.
Object id is 8574, canonical name is ConditionalProbabilityMeasure.
Accessed 2878 times total.
Classification:
| AMS MSC: | 60A99 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Foundations of probability theory :: Miscellaneous) |
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Pending Errata and Addenda
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