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geometric distribution (Definition)

Suppose that a random experiment has two possible outcomes, success with probability $p$ and failure with probability $q=1-p$ . The experiment is repeated until a success happens. The number of trials before the success is a random variable $X$ with density function $$f(x)=q^{(x-1)}p.$$

The distribution function determined by $f(x)$ is called a geometric distribution with parameter $p$ and it is given by $$F(x) = \sum_{k\leq x}q^{(k-1)}p.$$

\includegraphics{geomet}

The picture shows the graph for $f(x)$ with $p=1/4$ . Notice the quick decreasing. An interpretation is that a long run of failures is very unlikely.

We can use the moment generating function method in order to get the mean and variance. This function is $$G(t)=\sum_{k=1}^\infty e^{tk}q^{(k-1)}p=p\sum_{k=0}^\infty (e^tq)^k.$$ The last expression can be simplified as $$G(t)=\frac{p}{1-e^tq}.$$

The first and second derivatives are $$G'(t)=\frac{e^tpq}{(1-e^tq)^2}$$ so the mean is $$\mu=E[X]=G'(0)=\frac{q}{p}.$$

In order to find the variance, we get the second derivative and thus $$E[X^2]=G''(0)=\frac{2q^2}{p^2}+\frac{q}{p}$$ and therefore the variance is $$\sigma^2=E[X^2]-E[X]^2 = G''(0) - G'(0)^2 = \frac{q}{p^2}.$$




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See Also: random variable, density function, distribution function, mean, variance, Bernoulli distribution, arithmetic mean

Other names:  geometric random variable
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Cross-references: second derivatives, expression, function, variance, mean, order, moment generating function, interpretation, decreasing, graph, parameter, distribution function, density function, random variable, number, outcomes
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This is version 9 of geometric distribution, born on 2002-09-15, modified 2007-06-22.
Object id is 3456, canonical name is GeometricDistribution2.
Accessed 35086 times total.

Classification:
AMS MSC60E05 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Distribution theory :: Distributions: general theory)

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