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martingale convergence theorem
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(Theorem)
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There are several convergence theorems for martingales, which follow from Doob's upcrossing lemma. The following says that any $L^1$ -bounded martingale $X_n$ in discrete time converges almost surely. Note that almost-sure convergence (i.e. convergence with probability one) is quite strong, implying the weaker property of convergence in probability. Here, a martingale $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ is understood to be defined with respect to a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ and filtration $(\mathcal{F}_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ .
Theorem (Doob's Forward Convergence Theorem) Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a martingale (or submartingale, or supermartingale) such that $\mathbb{E}[|X_n|]$ is bounded over all $n\in\mathbb{N}$ . Then, with probability one, the limit $X_\infty=\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}X_n$ exists and is finite.
The condition that $X_n$ is $L^1$ -bounded is automatically satisfied in many cases. In particular, if $X$ is a non-negative supermartingale then $\mathbb{E}[|X_n|]=\mathbb{E}[X_n]\le\mathbb{E}[X_1]$ for all $n\ge 1$ , so $\mathbb{E}[|X_n|]$ is bounded, giving the following corollary.
Corollary Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a non-negative martingale (or supermartingale). Then, with probability one, the limit $X_\infty=\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}X_n$ exists and is finite.
As an example application of the martingale convergence theorem, it is easy to show that a standard random walk started started at $0$ will visit every level with probability one.
Corollary Let $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a standard random walk. That is, $X_1=0$ and \begin{equation*} \mathbb{P}(X_{n+1}=X_n+1\mid \mathcal{F}_n)=\mathbb{P}(X_{n+1}=X_n-1\mid\mathcal{F}_n) = 1/2. \end{equation*}Then, for every integer $a$ , with probability one $X_n=a$ for some $n$ .
Proof. Without loss of generality, suppose that $a\le 0$ . Let $T:\Omega\rightarrow\mathbb{N}\cup\{\infty\}$ be the first time $n$ for which $X_n=a$ . It is easy to see that the stopped process $X^T_n$ defined by $X^T_n=X_{\min(n,T)}$ is a martingale and $X^T-a$ is non-negative. Therefore, by the martingale convergence theorem, the limit $X^T_\infty=\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}X^T_n$ exists and is finite (almost surely). In particular, $|X^T_{n+1}-X^T_n|$ converges
to $0$ and must be less than $1$ for large $n$ . However, $|X^T_{n+1}-X^T_n|=1$ whenever $n<T$ , so we have $T<\infty$ and therefore $X_n=a$ for some $n$ . 
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"martingale convergence theorem" is owned by gel.
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Cross-references: stopped process, easy to see, without loss of generality, integer, level, random walk, application, finite, limit, bounded, supermartingale, submartingale, filtration, probability space, convergence in probability, property, strong, almost surely, converges, discrete, upcrossing, martingales, theorems
There are 3 references to this entry.
This is version 2 of martingale convergence theorem, born on 2008-11-29, modified 2008-11-29.
Object id is 11286, canonical name is MartingaleConvergenceTheorem.
Accessed 1954 times total.
Classification:
| AMS MSC: | 60G42 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Stochastic processes :: Martingales with discrete parameter) | | | 60G44 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Stochastic processes :: Martingales with continuous parameter) | | | 60G46 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Stochastic processes :: Martingales and classical analysis) | | | 60F15 (Probability theory and stochastic processes :: Limit theorems :: Strong theorems) |
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Pending Errata and Addenda
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