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mean square error (Definition)

The mean square error of an estimator $ \hat{\theta}$ of a parameter $ \theta$ in a statistical model is defined as:

$\displaystyle \operatorname{MSE}(\hat{\theta})\colon=\operatorname{E}\big[(\hat{\theta}-\theta)^2\big].$

From the definition of the variance $ \operatorname{Var}[X]=\operatorname{E}[X^2]-\operatorname{E}[X]^2$, we can express the mean square error in terms of the bias by expanding the right hand side above:

$\displaystyle \operatorname{MSE}(\hat{\theta})=\operatorname{Var}\big[\hat{\theta}\big]+ \operatorname{Bias}(\hat{\theta})^2.$

If $ \hat{\theta}$ is an unbiased estimator, then its mean square error is identical to its variance: $ \operatorname{MSE}(\hat{\theta})=\operatorname{Var}[\hat{\theta}]$. An unbiased estimator such that $ \operatorname{MSE}(\hat{\theta})$ is a minimum value among all unbiased estimators for $ \theta$ is called a minimum variance unbiased estimator, abbreviated MVUE, or uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, abbreviated UMVU estimator.

Example. Suppose $ X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ are iid random variables ($ n$ independent measurements of the radius of a coin, etc...) from a normal distribution $ N(\mu,\sigma^2)$ (for example, $ \mu$ would be the true radius of the coin, and $ \sigma^2$ would be the error component of the measurements). Suppose $ \overline{X}$ ( $ =\overline{X}_n$) is the sample mean. Then $ \overline{X}$ is an unbiased estimator, so that

$\displaystyle \operatorname{MSE}(\overline{X})=\operatorname{Var}\left[\overlin... ... X_i\right]=\frac{1}{n^2}\left(\sum_{i=1}^n \sigma^2\right)=\frac{\sigma^2}{n}.$

Remark. The square root of MSE is called the “root mean square error”, or rms error for short.



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Other names:  MSE, MVUE, UMVU, UMVUE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased
Also defines:  minimum variance unbiased estimator, rms error, root-mean-square, root mean square, rms
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Cross-references: square root, sample mean, component, normal distribution, radius, independent, random variables, iid, unbiased estimator, right hand side, bias, terms, variance, statistical model, parameter, estimator
There are 3 references to this entry.

This is version 7 of mean square error, born on 2002-01-05, modified 2006-09-23.
Object id is 1289, canonical name is RmsError.
Accessed 60971 times total.

Classification:
AMS MSC94A12 (Information and communication, circuits :: Communication, information :: Signal theory )
 62J10 (Statistics :: Linear inference, regression :: Analysis of variance and covariance)

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